Final 2015 CPR

By Stephen Shea, Ph.D. (@SteveShea33)

The very exciting 2014-15 college basketball season has ended.  I can now calculate and report the final College Prospect Ratings (CPR) for the 2015 NBA Draft’s top college prospects.

The 2014-15 NBA regular season has also concluded.  It was a particularly dreadful season for certain franchises and their fans.  But the offseason brings hope.  In a league that still rewards failure and incompetency, the NBA Draft can be franchise altering.  The proper selection can save a drowning franchise, and breath new life into its fan base.

Below are the CPR scores for DraftExpress.com’s top 60 NCAA prospects.  Each player’s DraftExpress ranking (DE rank) is listed in the first column.  The group is ordered by their CPR score.

DE rankCPR RankPlayerCPR
31D'Angelo Russell10.4
22Jahlil Okafor9.1
13Karl Towns7.6
174Kevon Looney7.1
155Bobby Portis6.5
96Myles Turner6.4
197Cameron Payne6.2
468DeAndre Bembry5.8
69Stanley Johnson5.6
1810Tyus Jones5.5
411Justise Winslow5.2
2412R.J. Hunter5.1
2313Christian Wood5.0
3014Terry Rozier4.7
4515Jordan Mickey4.3
2516Jarell Martin3.9
717Frank Kaminsky3.4
5218Joseph Young3.3
1019Kelly Oubre3.3
4020Rashad Vaughn3.2
1121Kris Dunn3.1
6022Tyler Harvey3.1
5123Shawn Long2.9
2624Delon Wright2.7
3725Amida Brimah2.7
826Jacob Poeltl2.6
1327Jerian Grant2.5
3928Buddy Hield2.5
4729Olivier Hanlan2.4
4330Aaron White2.3
1431Devin Booker2.2
5732Richaun Holmes2.2
5333Alan Williams2.2
3534Anthony Brown2.0
5535T.J. McConnell2.0
2036Montrezl Harrell1.9
3437Michael Qualls1.9
3638Yogi Ferrell1.8
4239A.J. Hammons1.8
5940Darrun Hilliard1.8
2841Justin Anderson1.8
5842Jonathan Holmes1.8
2143Rondae Hollis-Jefferson1.7
4844Rakeem Christmas1.6
3845Norman Powell1.6
5446Aaron Harrison1.6
2947Robert Upshaw1.5
1648Trey Lyles1.5
4449Andrew Harrison1.4
3150Tyrone Wallace1.3
1251Sam Dekker1.3
2252Caris LeVert1.3
5053Michael Frazier1.2
4154J.P. Tokoto1.2
555Willie Cauley-Stein1.2
3356Chris McCullough1.1
5657Cady Lalanne1.1
2758Cliff Alexander0.8
3259Dakari Johnson0.8
4960Mamadou Ndiaye0.4

The top 3 in CPR, Towns, Okafor and Russell, are the consensus top 3 NCAA prospects, although it’s quite possible that they are drafted in the reverse order of their CPR rankings.

The biggest surprise towards the top of the CPR board is St. Joseph’s DeAndre Bembry.  As a 6’6” sophomore, he averaged 17.7 points, 3.6 assists, 7.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 0.9 blocks.  He’s a jack-of-all-trades.  His CPR rating doesn’t scream NBA superstar, but he scored high enough to catch teams’ attention.  His score is similar to that of Kawhi Leonard in 2011.  Leonard might represent the type of player Bembry could become if he finds the right NBA organization, and they develop him to his fullest potential.

DraftExpress.com has Bembry ranked 66th overall (including foreign prospects).  That would leave him undrafted.  I believe that is a bit low.  If he enters the draft, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bembry drafted in the early part of the 2nd round.

CPR suggests that there will be talent available in the middle of the first round.  Looney and Portis, who rank 5th and 6th in CPR, stand out as individuals that could be mid-round steals.  The key for both might be whether they can develop a consistent NBA 3-point shot.  Both shot over 40% on 3s in college this season, but on a very small sample of 3-point attempts.

Willie Cauley-Stein is an excellent defender.  In my opinion, defense is a bigger priority for an NBA center than offense, and so I like the potential in Cauley-Stein.  Offensively, a center can “get by” if he can execute a pick and roll.  Cauley-Stein’s tremendous athleticism should translate to excellence as the roll man.  There’s DeAndre Jordan potential in this young center.

CPR does not like Willie Cauley-Stein.  Part of the reason is that he contributes in ways that are not measured in the box score (such as with his help defense), and CPR is built on box score production.  Still, his particularly low CPR score of 1.2 should be a concern for any team thinking of taking the center in the top 8 of the NBA Draft.  For a junior with his size and athleticism, some of his stats were shockingly mediocre.

In the Final Four matchup with Wisconsin, Cauley-Stein played 33 minutes, but only recorded 2 points and 5 rebounds.  He had 0 offensive rebounds.  In the previous game, Cauley-Stein played 33 minutes and only recorded 6 points and 4 rebounds.  Teams will need to study the film to determine exactly why Cauley-Stein isn’t getting more offensive putbacks or defensive rebounds.

For teams like the Knicks, Lakers and Timberwolves, the NBA Draft brings much needed hope.  CPR has made its suggestions as to which players hold the most pro potential.  Now let’s see what the teams think.

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7 Comments

  1. Crow

     /  April 19, 2015

    That is a strong rating for Portis, who interests me, especially in mid-first.

    Reply
  2. gk

     /  May 7, 2015

    On WCS the bad rebounds numbers should depend form the way HE WAS utilized, at last on defense, Weber he guarded many swingman or sf

    Reply
  3. Julian

     /  May 27, 2015

    just discovered this site through draftexpress. great work going on here. one Question:

    I was browsing through the different draft and CPR related posts on the site. The 2014 post explaining CPR had Carmelo as a 3.8, Dwyane Wade as a 3, Davis as a 2.8. But in a later post, You refer to Melo as one of the players in the vaunted can’t miss “10+” Group, with a rating over 12. Did I miss something, or did something change in the end-result number calculations for CPR?

    I ask because Draftexpress linked to that 2014 information post on CPR, and the natural next step was to look for the 2015 CPR rating post, and that disconnect was evident and I figured I might not be the only one confused.

    Thanks in advance!

    Reply
    • Great question. Yes, CPR was slightly tweaked and rescaled for the release of the 2014 book. The goal was to put it on a scale where integer differences mattered (as opposed to decimal differences). Largely, the rankings stayed the same. I’ll edit the linked post to make that comment.

      Reply
      • Julian

         /  May 28, 2015

        awesome. looking forward to seeing those 2012/2014 draft class players , and the “notables” list on the new scale and comparing them to the 2015 guys. I need to know how appropriately excited/depressed I should be after the Knicks make a pick this year.

        Reply
  4. Nick

     /  June 15, 2015

    Hey. Any type of rating or way to compare the foriegn players with the collage players in the draft? I am very interested how porzingis, hezonja and mudiay would rank on the cbr list.

    Reply
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