CPR 2017

By Steve Shea (@SteveShea33)

April 4, 2017

CPR is a metric that rates NCAA players’ NBA potential. For a complete introduction, see our previous post.

The following table contains the CPR scores (as of April 2, 2017) for the 78 college prospects that made the top 100 prospects at DraftExpress.com.

PlayerCollegeCPR V3
Malik MonkKentucky18
Jayson TatumDuke15
Markelle FultzWashington14
Lonzo BallUCLA14
Caleb SwaniganPurdue14
Dedric LawsonMemphis13
Dennis SmithN.C. State11
Drew EubanksOregon St.11
Josh JacksonKansas10
Thomas BryantIndiana10
Jonathan IsaacFlorida St.9
Miles BridgesMichigan St.9
Mikal BridgesVillanova9
Cameron OliverNevada9
Luke KennardDuke8
Donovan MitchellLouisville8
Zach CollinsGonzaga8
Tyler LydonSyracuse8
T.J. LeafUCLA8
Alec PetersValparaiso8
De'Aaron FoxKentucky7
Lauri MarkkanenArizona7
John CollinsWake Forest7
Ivan RabbCAL7
Jawun EvansOklahoma St.7
Andrew JonesTexas7
Chimezie MetuUSC7
Bam AdebayoKentucky6
Sindarius ThornwellSouth Carolina6
Jacob EvansCincinnati6
Rawle AlkinsArizona6
D.J. WilsonMichigan6
Monte MorrisIowa St.6
Josh HartVillanova6
OG AnunobyIndiana5
Dillon BrooksOregon5
Justin PattonCreighton5
Vince EdwardsPurdue5
Shake MiltonSMU5
Jordan BellOregon5
Luke KornetVanderbilt5
V.J. BeachemNotre Dame5
Malcom HillIllinois5
Nigel Williams-GossGonzaga5
Frank JacksonDuke4
Sviatoslav MykhailiukKansas4
Kobi SimmonsArizona4
Ethan HappWisconsin4
Bruce BrownMiami4
L.J. PeakGeorgetown4
Allonzo TrierArizona4
Devin RobinsonFlorida4
Justin JacksonUNC4
Devonte GrahamKansas4
Joel BerryUNC4
Grayson AllenDuke4
Frank MasonKansas4
Jarrett AllenTexas3
P.J. DozierSouth Carolina3
Isaiah BriscoeKentucky3
Tacko FallUCF3
Johnathan MotleyBaylor3
Kyle KuzmaUtah3
Melo TrimbleMaryland3
Dwayne BaconFSU3
Derrick WhiteColorado3
Semi OjeleyeSMU3
Wesley IwunduKansas St.3
Tony BradleyUNC2
Omer YurtsevenN.C. State2
Antonius ClevelandSoutheast MO St.2
Andrew WhiteSyracuse2
Ike AnigboguUCLA1
Harry GilesDuke1
Marques BoldenDuke1
Isaiah HicksUNC1
Nigel HayesWisonsin1
Jaron BlossomgameClemson1

At first glance, the metric appears to be overrating players in the traditional PF build and style. These would be Swanigan, Lawson, Eubanks, and Bryant.  For all of these players, there are two critical questions any team would need to answer before considering drafting them. First, what is the player’s position? As the NBA is trending smaller, there is potential for these players to get playing time as small-ball centers. This is especially true for Bryant who has a remarkable wingspan that gives him a standing reach on par with players inches taller.  These players could also play some 4 in the right matchups. In those cases, Swanigan, Bryant and Lawson have potential to stretch the floor with their 3-point shooting more so than is typical of a player their size at the position. (Eubanks has yet to take a 3 in college.)

Second, will the players’ skills translate? Here, the question is in regards to size and athleticism. The high CPR scores for these bigs is based in large part on their rebounding and blocks. Even though the NBA is trending smaller, it is still a bigger, faster and more athletic league than NCAA basketball.  Do these players have the size, strength and athleticism to rebound and defend the interior at the next level?

The following table contains the CPR scores for the 2017 prospects as well as all college players drafted in the last 6 years. We’ve also thrown in a few others from even earlier drafts, such as Chris Paul for comparison. It’s helpful to see the CPR score for a player who has now played the majority of his NBA career.

Draft YearPlayerPickCPR V3
2007Kevin Durant284
2004Chris Paul430
2012Anthony Davis123
2009Stephen Curry721
2017Malik Monk-18
2010Hassan Whiteside3317
2008Kevin Love517
2009Blake Griffin116
2017Jayson Tatum-15
2014Jabari Parker215
2014Joel Embiid315
2017Markelle Fultz-14
2017Lonzo Ball-14
2017Caleb Swanigan-14
2016Brandon Ingram214
2015D'Angelo Russell214
2015Karl-Anthony Towns114
2014Andrew Wiggins114
2014Marcus Smart614
2013Nerlens Noel614
2017Dedric Lawson-13
2016Jamal Murray713
2016Ben Simmons113
2015Myles Turner1113
2013Otto Porter313
2011Kyrie Irving113
2010Paul George1013
2015Kevon Looney3012
2015Tyus Jones2412
2011Klay Thompson1112
2010John Wall112
2017Dennis Smith-11
2017Drew Eubanks-11
2016Henry Ellenson1811
2015Justise Winslow1011
2014Elfrid Payton1011
2014Jordan Adams2211
2014K.J. McDaniels3211
2014Kyle Anderson3011
2013Kentavious Caldwell-Pope811
2012Meyers Leonard1111
2012Jae Crowder3411
2011Derrick Williams211
2010DeMarcus Cousins511
2017Josh Jackson-10
2017Thomas Bryant-10
2016Chinanu Onuaku3710
2016Domantas Sabonis1110
2016Tyler Ulis3410
2016Patrick McCaw3810
2016Kay Felder5410
2013Victor Oladipo210
2012Maurice Harkless1510
2012Draymond Green3510
2011Kawhi Leonard1510
2011Kenneth Faried2210
2007Mike Conley410
2017Jonathan Isaac-9
2017Miles Bridges-9
2017Mikal Bridges-9
2017Cameron Oliver-9
2016Kris Dunn59
2015Stanley Johnson89
2014Tyler Ennis189
2013Alex Len59
2013Anthony Bennett19
2012Bradley Beal39
2012Jared Sullinger219
2009James Harden39
2017Luke Kennard-8
2017Donovan Mitchell-8
2017Zach Collins-8
2017Tyler Lydon-8
2017T.J. Leaf-8
2017Alec Peters-8
2016Wade Baldwin178
2016Dejounte Murray298
2015Bobby Portis228
2015Cameron Payne148
2015R.J. Hunter288
2014Jarnell Stokes358
2014Gary Harris198
2013Ben McLemore78
2013Andre Roberson268
2013C.J. McCollum108
2012Terrence Jones188
2012Will Barton408
2012Damian Lillard68
2011Tobias Harris198
2011Tristan Thompson48
2011Darius Morris418
2011Kemba Walker98
2011Iman Shumpert178
2011Jimmer Fredette108
2010Gordon Hayward98
2008Derrick Rose18
2007Greg Oden18
2017De'Aaron Fox-7
2017Lauri Markkanen-7
2017John Collins-7
2017Ivan Rabb-7
2017Jawun Evans-7
2017Andrew Jones-7
2017Chimezie Metu-7
2016Marquesse Chriss87
2016Deyonta Davis317
2016Stephen Zimmerman417
2016Daniel Hamilton567
2016Joel Bolomboy527
2015Chris McCullough297
2015Jordan Mickey337
2015Frank Kaminsky97
2013Steven Adams127
2013Reggie Bullock257
2012Michael Kidd-Gilchrist27
2012Jeremy Lamb127
2012Terrence Ross87
2012Jared Cunningham247
2012Kyle O'Quinn497
2012Marcus Denmon597
2011Alec Burks127
2011Brandon Knight87
2011Chris Singleton187
2011Charles Jenkins447
2009Jrue Holiday177
2008Russell Westbrook47
2006Kyle Lowry247
2017Bam Adebayo-6
2017Sindarius Thornwell-6
2017Jacob Evans-6
2017Rawle Alkins-6
2017D.J. Wilson-6
2017Monte Morris-6
2017Josh Hart-6
2016Skal Labissiere286
2016Jaylen Brown36
2016Malachi Richardson226
2016Malik Beasley196
2016Isaiah Whitehead426
2016Ben Bentil516
2016Pascal Siakam276
2016Taurean Prince126
2016Buddy Hield66
2015Rashad Vaughn176
2015Devin Booker136
2015Jahlil Okafor36
2015Rondae Hollis-Jefferson236
2015Terry Rozier166
2015Richaun Holmes376
2015Pat Connaughton416
2015Josh Richardson406
2015Tyler Harvey516
2014Noah Vonleh96
2014Aaron Gordon46
2014Julius Randle76
2014Spencer Dinwiddie386
2014DeAndre Daniels376
2014Doug McDermott116
2013Trey Burke96
2013Allen Crabbe316
2013Shane Larkin186
2013Jamaal Franklin416
2013Michael Carter-Williams116
2013Nate Wolters386
2012Tony Wroten256
2012Quincy Miller386
2012Harrison Barnes76
2012John Jenkins236
2011Cory Joseph296
2011Tyler Honeycutt356
2011Nikola Vucevic166
2011Jordan Hamilton266
2011Reggie Jackson246
2011JaJuan Johnson276
2011Justin Harper326
2011MarShon Brooks256
2011Markieff Morris136
2017OG Anunoby-5
2017Dillon Brooks-5
2017Justin Patton-5
2017Vince Edwards-5
2017Shake Milton-5
2017Jordan Bell-5
2017Luke Kornet-5
2017V.J. Beachem-5
2017Malcom Hill-5
2017Nigel Williams-Goss-5
2016Brice Johnson255
2016Jake Layman475
2016Caris LeVert205
2016Denzel Valentine145
2015Kelly Oubre155
2015Jarell Martin255
2015Larry Nance Jr.275
2015Norman Powell465
2015Darrun Hilliard385
2014James Young175
2014Jerami Grant395
2014Glenn Robinson III405
2014T.J. Warren145
2014Nik Stauskas85
2014Alec Brown505
2014Markel Brown445
2014Nick Johnson425
2014P.J. Hairston265
2014Rodney Hood235
2014Shabazz Napier245
2013Archie Goodwin295
2013Grant Jerrett405
2013Tony Mitchell375
2013Mike Muscala445
2013Ryan Kelly485
2013Ray McCallum365
2013Solomon Hill235
2013Erick Green465
2013Isaiah Canaan345
2013Pierre Jackson425
2013James Ennis505
2012Andre Drummond95
2012Doron Lamb425
2012John Henson145
2012Andrew Nicholson195
2011Trey Thompkins375
2011Travis Leslie475
2011Jon Leuer405
2011Jimmy Butler305
2011E'Twaun Moore555
2011Norris Cole285
2007Al Horford35
2017Frank Jackson-4
2017Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk-4
2017Kobi Simmons-4
2017Ethan Happ-4
2017Bruce Brown-4
2017L.J. Peak-4
2017Allonzo Trier-4
2017Devin Robinson-4
2017Justin Jackson-4
2017Devonte Graham-4
2017Joel Berry-4
2017Grayson Allen-4
2017Frank Mason-4
2016Diamond Stone404
2016Jakob Poeltl94
2016DeAndre Bembry214
2016Isaiah Cousins594
2016Demetrius Jackson454
2015Dakari Johnson484
2015Trey Lyles124
2015Montrezl Harrell324
2015Andrew Harrison444
2015Justin Anderson214
2015Marcus Thornton454
2015Olivier Hanlan424
2015Sir'Dominic Pointer534
2015Delon Wright204
2015Aaron White494
2015Anthony Brown344
2015Joseph Young434
2014Zach LaVine134
2014Roy Devyn Marble564
2014Jordan Clarkson464
2013Tony Snell204
2013Deshaun Thomas584
2013Carrick Felix334
2013Arsalan Kazemi544
2012Marquis Teague294
2012Austin Rivers104
2012Thomas Robinson54
2012Dion Waiters44
2012Tyler Zeller174
2012Darius Miller464
2012Kevin Murphy474
2012Robbie Hummel584
2011Josh Selby494
2011Jordan Williams364
2011Shelvin Mack344
2011Marcus Morris144
2011Keith Benson484
2011Jon Diebler514
2009DeMar DeRozan94
2008DeAndre Jordan354
2006LaMarcus Aldridge24
2017Jarrett Allen-3
2017P.J. Dozier-3
2017Isaiah Briscoe-3
2017Tacko Fall-3
2017Johnathan Motley-3
2017Kyle Kuzma-3
2017Melo Trimble-3
2017Dwayne Bacon-3
2017Derrick White-3
2017Semi Ojeleye-3
2017Wesley Iwundu-3
2016Cheick Diallo333
2016Abdel Nader583
2016Georges Niang503
2015Sam Dekker183
2015Branden Dawson563
2015Willie Cauley-Stein63
2015J.P. Tokoto583
2015Jerian Grant193
2014Semaj Christon553
2014Josh Huestis293
2014Adreian Payne153
2014Cleanthony Early343
2014Lamar Patterson483
2014Xavier Thames593
2014Russ Smith473
2013Cody Zeller43
2013Tim Hardaway243
2013Shabazz Muhammad143
2013Kelly Olynyk133
2013Glen Rice353
2013Jeff Withey393
2013Erik Murphy493
2013Peyton Siva563
2012Royce White163
2012Perry Jones283
2012Khris Middleton393
2012Kendall Marshall133
2012Quincy Acy373
2012Arnett Moultrie273
2012Tyshawn Taylor413
2012Orlando Johnson363
2012Jeff Taylor313
2011Malcolm Lee433
2011Lavoy Allen503
2011Josh Harrellson453
2011Isaiah Thomas603
2011Kyle Singler333
2011Andrew Goudelock463
2011Nolan Smith213
2017Tony Bradley-2
2017Omer Yurtseven-2
2017Antonius Cleveland-2
2017Andrew White-2
2016Damian Jones302
2016Tyrone Wallace602
2016Marcus Paige552
2016Michael Gbinije492
2016Malcolm Brogdon362
2014Johnny O'Bryant III362
2014Jordan McRae582
2014Dwight Powell452
2014Joe Harris332
2014C.J. Wilcox282
2013Gorgui Dieng212
2013Mason Plumlee222
2013Lorenzo Brown522
2012Fab Melo222
2012Justin Hamilton452
2012Darius Johnson-Odom552
2012Kim English442
2011DeAndre Liggins532
2011Chandler Parsons382
2017Ike Anigbogu-1
2017Harry Giles-1
2017Marques Bolden-1
2017Isaiah Hicks-1
2017Nigel Hayes-1
2017Jaron Blossomgame-1
2016A.J. Hammons461
2015Cady Lalanne551
2015Rakeem Christmas361
2014Mitch McGary211
2014Cory Jefferson601
2014Cameron Bairstow491
2013Alex Oriakhi571
2013Romero Osby511
2013Colton Iverson531
2012Festus Ezeli301
2012Robert Sacre601
2012Miles Plumlee261
2012Kris Joseph511
2012Mike Scott431
2012Bernard James331
2011Vernon Macklin520
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3 Comments

  1. Ben

     /  April 5, 2017

    1. If you only count the top 10 results, why is Malik Monk’s score lower now than when you ran the model previously? His top ten results presumably already occurred and were on the books.

    2. How would Jevon Carter rate? Kamar Baldwin? Terence Davis II as well? It seems PPG is very important for 19 year olds and few were better in their 10 best games than Davis.

    Draftexpress top 100 is a year or two behind on some players.

    3. If a player shoots well from three in ten games but rebounds and steals the ball in mostly ten different games, is this metric going to underate them because of the use of 3PT assumptions rather than seasonal averages? Or is that not how it works? I could be misunderstanding.

    4. Yes, non-defenders and especially PF/C who can’t defend are drastically overrated by your model. Also, players who fair poorly vs competition like Dedric Lawson. Though I won’t get into the similarities between Parker and Tatum and how they were/are both overrated for likely similar reasons.

    Reply
    • In response to 1 and 3: For 3P% and FT%, I use season averages.

      In response to 2: Not sure. Terence Davis II was born in 97, and so would go into the model as a 20-year-old.

      In response to 4: Unfortunately, college box-score data doesn’t give us enough to predict accurately if a big will have the lateral quickness to be able to defend forwards in the NBA. Luckily, a draft model doesn’t have to be (and should never be) a list to draft off in order.

      Reply
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